Risk Dialogue Series: Understanding the Drivers of Longevity - Executive summary
10 Dec 2012
Over the past 150 years, life expectancy among the world’s population has increased by more than 30 years. The question then naturally arises, why has this happened? Why do we live longer? Can the current trend continue and, if so, to what extent? What are the rivers of longevity? In this publication, you will find a broad overview of the current state of knowledge on the mechanisms and drivers of longevity.
This Risk Dialogue Series begins with an introduction by Daniel Ryan, Head of Life & Health R&D at Swiss Re. Ryan observes that traditional approaches to forecasting future mortality have focused on past trends with insufficient attention to the underlying causal drivers. He extols the benefits of disease-centred models of mortality that bring together detailed information from patient medical records on the diagnosis and progression of disease with scenarios based on expert opinion that set out future timelines of likely events.