Lucia Bevere believes certain risk models still pose challenges

12 Jul 2016

Swiss Re's Senior Catastrophe Data Analyst, presented “An overview of losses from catastrophic events" at the Catastrophe Knowledge Exchange event at the Swiss Re Centre for Global Dialogue.

Click here to find out more about the Catastrophe Knowledge Exchange event.

Swiss Re's sigma catastrophe database is an international commercial database that contains key data on both natural catastrophes and man-made disasters dating back to 1970. It covers a broad range of hazards. According to Lucia Bevere, global natural catastrophe losses totalled USD 3.9 trillion since 1970. Surprisingly, 72% of these losses have been uninsured. Given that the number of natural catastrophe events is rising and flood-related costs in particular are on the rise, significant opportunities remain to close the protection gap. Among the challenges that still need to be addressed are tsunamis, storm surge, the increased seismicity after events, liquefaction and claims handling.

View her presentation slides here

Read the text version of Lucia Bevere’s video interview below:

"Earthquake is under-insured in California. There is very high risk, very high exposure, but insurance penetration is very low, even though it's a very developed country and there are very sophisticated models. It is surprising, and it's because it can be quite expensive. Therefore, again, it's the government's responsibility to promote the use of insurance.

Of course, also the industry must come up with innovation. Certain models are just impossible. It is very difficult to understand all the interconnections, so certain models are just not possible to model fully. It's impossible to build fully probabilistic models, but it is still possible to get insights as to whether certain events will happen and a certain probability.

There are a lot of brains in the industry and outside the industry in the disaster risk arena. One thing that I'm taking out of this is that it's perhaps not possible to model just everything. Sometimes, we have to settle even with less sophisticated models and that already will be enough."

Click below to read the themes from the first Catastrophe Knowledge Exchange:

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